Maldives President seeks re-election in vote deciding India ties

Election decides fate of India-Maldives relations

Maldives President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih is running for re-election in a presidential vote seen as a referendum on his efforts to strengthen ties with India, a traditional ally. His predecessor, Abdulla Yameen, had leaned towards China for loans and diplomatic support. During Yameen's rule, the Maldives borrowed heavily from China for infrastructure projects, leading to increased geopolitical rivalry in the region.

Repairing relations with India

Solih moved quickly to repair relations with India after defeating Yameen, welcoming Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to his inauguration. He also worked to restore the Maldives' traditional diplomatic posture and rejoined the Commonwealth, which Yameen had left.

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Despite the improved relations, India's significant political and economic influence in the Maldives remains a source of tension. Some political groups, including Yameen's party, have protested against India's influence in the country. An Islamist group even disrupted a public yoga session last year, highlighting the sensitivity surrounding India's role.

International diplomacy is expected to play a crucial role in the election. Yameen's party has continued its "India Out" campaign, but Mohamed Muizzu, Yameen's proxy candidate, has avoided openly criticizing India, recognizing the importance of maintaining good relations.

Three-cornered contest

The election is expected to be a three-cornered contest, with Solih facing opposition from Muizzu and Ilyas Labeeb, backed by a breakaway faction of Solih's Maldivian Democratic Party. Solih is the frontrunner, but a run-off election may occur if he fails to secure a majority in the first round. Historically, run-off elections have favored opposition parties in the Maldives.

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Solih's administration has criticized China's lending practices as a debt trap and has worked to strengthen its ties with India. However, the outcome of the election could determine the future direction of the Maldives' foreign policy.